004 - Systems vs. goals, perseverance and making better decisions.

Hello my friends, welcome to the ‘Third Creator Letter’

Dishing out fresh insights that’ll make you a clearer thinker. We’re all figuring it out and we’ll keep growing together.

Every week I share:

• 1 mental model (with an example of it’s application)

• 2 Quotes

• 1 deep dive

You ready?

Let’s go!

1 Mental Model:

Systems vs. Goals

A system is anything you do everyday.

A goal is what you hope to achieve someday in the future.

System thinkers succeed every time they complete their systems (or targeted set of daily activities)

Goal thinkers are really never happy because they haven’t achieved their goal yet.

To achieve more focus on the process first—the system—that will get you to the goal.

If writing a book is the goal, your system for getting there could be writing for 1 hour everyday.

2 Quotes

1 Deep Dive

Making better decisions.

If you went back in time and took the shortest path to where you are today, you’d be amazed at how much time you wasted on poor decisions.

I’ve always been amazed at how nuances in thinking and decision making create such extraordinary differences in outcomes.

Everyone says learn from your experiences, but no one lives long enough to experience everything.

There’s a way to make better decisions without having to rely on your experience—or those of others—in fact, a simple change in how you look at problems can shortcut your path to any achievement.

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There are many factors that affect good decision making. Experience isn’t a major one.

When people say “learn from your experiences.” what they fail to mention is that there are numerous other ways to learn.

The most brilliant people in the world and the best decision makers don’t rely on their experiences—or those of others—to learn. That would take a life time and a lots of trial and error.

The belief that experience is the best teacher, is false.

Plus its grounded on the belief that humans have experienced all there is to experience. Personally I don’t believe this.

So then what’s the better approach to making better decisions?

Mental models.

A mental model is an explanation of how something works. A concept or framework that helps you understand the relationship between things and as a result make better decisions.

No one discipline—economics, physics, biology etc.—has all the answers, but a combination of different mental models will give you the necessary frameworks to evaluate decisions.

Making better decisions isn’t one skill, but rather a group of tools and frameworks.

What differentiates consistently good decision makers from terrible ones is the nuance of a series of tools and frameworks.

They approach problems very differently from how everyone else does. That is, they approach problems from multiple angles.

The truth is, you already make decisions using mental models. The problem is you’re just stuck in a select few that may not be very helpful. For example, if you were asked to choose between two job offers, almost reflexively you start mentally (or physically) making lists of the pros vs the cons.

This is helpful when the problem comprises of clear positives and negatives

But when the problem is more complex, like how best to raise a child. The answer isn’t clearly defined with pro-con lists due to the sheer complexity of the problem. Children learn differently, applying pro-con lists assumes that one method works for every child.

See how quickly we run into problems?

Mental models determine how you approach problems and how you determine what information to use or ignore.

Over the past couple of months I have given time to studying the best decision makers on our planet today and how they make decisions. While it’s a continuous process and one shouldn’t fall prey to inertia and only focus on a specific number of mental models;

Here are 5 of the most helpful ones I’ve found. (Be sure to read up on the ones that interest you, as these are just quick summaries, but I will expand on these and others in future letters):

1. First principles thinking: “The first basis from which a thing is known.” This will help you establish foundational truths that you can build non-liner outcomes from. In a world of copycat solutions, escaping the trap of ‘reasoning by analogy’ is the key to achieving outstanding results.

2. Second order thinking: “And then what.” You learn to look past the immediate effects of a solution and examine the ultimate outcome. Extraordinary results are achieved by people who learn to see beyond the obvious. That’s exactly what second order thinking teaches you to do.

3. Circle of competence: You need to identify your area of expertise or relative knowledge and consciously expand or stay within it. This teaches you to clearly define what you’re good or bad at. Knowing your strengths and weaknesses puts you ahead of others—who would rather just assume they know everything.

4. Compounding: “The eight wonder of the world.” Some of the best things in life are a direct result of compound interest. This teaches you that time multiplies what you feed it. Get started and don’t stop and you’ll reap the rewards given a long enough time. Ordinary actions x time = extraordinary results.

5. Inversion: “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I can never go there.” Sometimes success is about avoiding failure. Inversion helps you identify and remove failure. It teaches you to approach a problem from the opposite end instead of the normal starting point.

To make better decisions you don’t need to learn from your experiences—or those of others. You simply need a reliable system for finding fundamentals and relationships and using that knowledge to navigate the problem.

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Thank you for reading today’s issue.

If you enjoyed it, I would appreciate it if you could share with your friends and family.

Till next time..

Have a kickass week my friends

-Frank.